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Impact of the Y2K problem on the developing nations


The United Nations have sounded a warning that the any failure on the part of the developing countries to ward off the widespread computer failure by fixing the Year-2000 computer bug could trigger bank panics, disrupt trade and cause civil unrest. According to the UN, governments and companies in India, China, Eastern Europe, South America and the Middle East may not be ready for the date change-over on January 1, 2000, unless they attack the problem aggressively soon with more money and re-programme the computers to prevent their crashing or generating erroneous data.

A UN Year 2000 resolution urging the States to accord the highest priority to the Y2K fixing problems was debated by the General Assembly recently. The UN has also begun offering diplomats Year-2000 awareness courses and will consider coordinating technical assistance and economic incentives for developing nations to fix the Y2K problem.

The chief economist of Deutsche Securities Inc. points out that there is a 60% chance that Year-2000 computer failures will trigger a moderate worldwide recession. According to New York's Federal Reserve, even if the US and the European countries fix their computers, computer failures in the developing nations could affect international currency traffic and security settlements and nearly all financial organisations worldwide are at risk for the Year-2000 problem.

A study released recently by the World Bank says that only about 10% of 120 nations classified as developing have a government-wide Year-2000 programme. The Bank plans to spend $30 million - $14.5 millions of it as grants - for governments to re-programme their computers. The United Kingdom has contributed $16 million and the World Bank is negotiating with Japan, Canada and Italy for additional contributions. It will be holding 20 seminars till October 1998 in developing nations to increase awareness of the problem and encourage governments to spend more money fixing their computers. The Bank also plans to fund 64 Year-2000 programmes and is discussing possibilities with the International Monetary Fund for more.



 
Edited by: Rakesh Marwah, Executive Director and
  A. Kottai, Manager (Information Services) 
Published by A. Kottai on behalf of 3SEI, Bangalore.

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